针对赤峰市极端天气事件发生频率明显增加的现状，建立全面的赤峰市农业气候年景评估标准，为开展农业气候年景预测奠定基础。基于气候年景相关标准，采用1991 — 2020年赤峰市14个国家基本、基准气象观测站的气温、降水、日照时数、地面最低气温以及相对湿润度指数(MI)等数据，从气象要素和气象灾害两方面构建适用于赤峰市农业生产的气候年景指数计算方法，结合赤峰地区气候特点选取主要气象灾害，对赤峰市农业气候年景进行客观定量评估，并使用产量数据对评估结果进行验证。结果表明，近年来气象要素年景变化不显著，而气象灾害年景呈向差的趋势；农业气候年景指数以0.78/10 a的速率呈显著上升，评估结果与农业产量的变化大致相符，基本符合率(相差2级以下)达到86.67%，能够一定程度上定性反映农业年景的好坏，说明研究结果能够为赤峰市气象部门开展农业气象服务提供客观、定量化的年景指标，同时也适用于农业部门的气候年景评估工作。

In response to the increasing frequency of extreme weather events in Chifeng, a comprehensive standard for annual agricultural and climatic status assessment in the city was established to lay the foundation for agricultural climate year forecasting. Based on relevant standards of annual climatic status, data from 14 national basic and benchmark meteorological observation stations in Chifeng during 1991 — 2020, including temperature, precipitation, sunshine hours, ground minimum temperature, and relative moisture index(MI), were used to construct a climate and weather index calculation method suitable for agricultural productionin Chifeng. The method integrated both meteorological elements and disasters. Main disaster types were selected according to local climatic characteristics to conduct an objective and quantitative assessment of agricultural climate years, and the results were validated using yield data. Results showed that meteorological element conditions showed insignificant interannual variations in recent years, while meteorological disaster conditions exhibited a deteriorating trend. The agricultural climate year index demonstrated a significant upward trend at 0.78 per decade. The assessment results were generally consistent with changes in agricultural yield, with a basic consistency rate(discrepancy within two levels) of 86.67%, indicating the index can qualitatively reflect annual agricultural conditions. The findings provide a scientific, quantitative reference for climate services by the Chifeng Meteorological Department and can also support climate year assessments in agricultural sectors.

S165.27

内蒙古自治区自然科学基金面上项目(2024MS05047)。